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I often tell my students at the University that my aim is that after three years, you basically know less than when you first got here. But I personally like the kind of science that broadens the horizons. When I go to the doctor to get a medicine, I want him to narrow down the possibilities, not just to enumerate all the options. People ask what will happen next? You have all these possibilities, and I'm telling you, China is going to be the superpower, end of story. The same thing in economics, in medicine, and also in history. That's it.Īnd after you finish reading the book or taking the course or whatever, your view of the world in this sense is narrower, because you have fewer possibilities to consider. It will certainly rain, maybe hard, maybe less so. And a good meteorologist, according to one view of science, is a meteorologist that takes this horizon of possibilities and narrows it down to a single possibility or just two possibilities. It might rain, it might snow, there might be sunshine. For example, when you try to predict the weather for tomorrow, there are a lot of possibilities to begin with. HARARI: I think about it in visual terms, whether you try to narrow your field of vision, or to broaden it. KAHNEMAN: Could you elaborate on these possibilities? I mean, what's the distinction between predicting and setting up a range of possibilities?
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I'm trying to identify what are the possibilities, what is the horizon of possibilities that we are facing? And what will happen from among these possibilities? We still have a lot of choice in this regard. I'm trying to do something that is the opposite of predicting the future. This is the first time in history that we're in this situation. We may know some of the basic variables but, if you really understand what's going on in the world, you know that it's impossible to have any good prediction for the coming decades. Nobody has a clue how the world will look like in, say, 40, 50 years. And this is a direct continuation from covering the history of humankind, from the appearance of Homo Sapiens until today, so when you finish that, immediately, you think, okay, what next? I'm not trying to predict the future, which is impossible, now more than ever. My big question at present is what is the human agenda for the 21st century. How did you transition from that book to what you're doing now? And there are many other things like that in the book. Because I thought, where did he get it? My search of the phrase showed that all the references were to you. I love that phrase.Īnd in fact, I loved that phrase so much that I went and looked it up. Your chapter on science is one of my favorites and so is the title of that chapter, "The Discovery of Ignorance." It presents the idea that science began when people discovered that there was ignorance, and that they could do something about it, that this was really the beginning of science. I want to talk about just one or two of them as examples. It seems to be like an invitation for people to dismiss it as superficial, so I read it, and I read it again, because in fact, I found so many ideas that were enriching. THE REALITY CLUB: Nicholas Carr, Steven Pinker, Yuval Noah Harari, Kevin KellyĭANIEL KAHNEMAN: Before asking you what are the questions you are asking yourself, I want to say that I've now read your book Sapiens twice and in that book you do something that I found pretty extraordinary. He is the Eugene Higgins Professor of Psychology Emeritus, Princeton, and author of Thinking Fast and Slow. Yuval Noah Harari's Edge Bio PageĭANIEL KAHNEMAN is the recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics, 2002 and the Presidential Medal of Freedom, 2013. YUVAL NOAH HARARI, Lecturer, Department of History, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, is the author of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind. So if there is a point of Singularity, by definition, we have no way of even starting to imagine what's happening beyond that. If life can break out of the organic realm into the vastness of the inorganic realm, you cannot even begin to imagine what the consequences will be, because your imagination at present is organic. Nobody has a clue what will happen once you solve this.
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when brains and computers can interact directly, that's it, that's the end of history, that's the end of biology as we know it. Once you really solve a problem like direct brain-computer interface.